“A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues.” Manuscript, Congressional Budget Office. I am the CEO of Warburg Realty, a luxury residential real estate brokerage in New York City. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. This episode illustrates a particularly strong “wait and see” pattern similar to what happened during the SARS outbreak–customers are not going to walk-throughs or closing on transactions in person. The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes. Trulia will be ListGlobally’s exclusive partner in the U.S. for international real estate search, launching international search capabilities in the first half of 2011. URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-slows-chinas-property-market-to-a-crawl-and-even-the-most-robust-real-estate-app-is-no-match-2020-02-18. ANU Press. URL: Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. Once the epidemic subsided, GDP snapped back to its pre-epidemic trend, while unemployment took until the winter to recover. Age and Affordability: Why an Affordable Rental Home Is More Often an Older Home, and Why That Matters, Healthy Housing: Where Higher Rents Are Correlated With Worse Health, Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Live Far From Healthy Food, Some by Choice and Some Not. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. “References to ‘influenza’ in the monthly Federal Reserve Bulletin during 1918 and 1919.” Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Goldman Sachs, 2020. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 2020, via FRED Database. Neither realtor.com nor its affiliates guarantee that the conversion reflects current conversion rates and are not responsible for any inaccuracies. “Pandemic Risk.” World Development Report Background Paper, the World Bank. She explains this pattern (small price reductions coincided with a large reduction in volume) as customers adopting a “wait and see” approach, whereby they avoid nonessential interactions with other people, instead waiting until the end of the epidemic to defer their transactions. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS. Similarly, Douglas Szeto and Buckle (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce New Zealand GDP by 5-10%. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf, Wong, Grace, 2008. During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). Looking beyond real estate, Siu and Wong (2004) examine disaggregated macro data from the SARS episode, and they find that the travel, tourism, durable and semi-durable retail, and entertainment sectors were strongest hit, while production and exports were less affected. We found the following main quantitative patterns: Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. ... the real estate market, taking a huge hit and failing to recover. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Property for sale. ... is planning a $797M IPO in Hong Kong… Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. While Hawaii is synonymous with calm and serenity for many, house prices have accelerated over the past decade. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of Canada. The survey, which divides median house prices by gross annual median household income, found Hong Kong to clock in at 18.1. 64 Homes For Sale in East, Arlington, TX. URL: https://www.google.com/books/edition/SARS_in_Context/xAibijIszawC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover, Jonas, Olga, 2013. Exchange rates are subject to continuous change. Homes For Sale in South Korea | CENTURY 21 Global. Search zillow jobs in New York, NY. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/02/28/ae384520-6a4b-415d-a6e6-6fa28e8e25ee.html. URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf. URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump’s-1st-term. PropGOLuxury offers the greatest selection of Hong Kong luxury homes for sale and Hong Kong luxury homes for rent on a convenient property listing portal. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. However, since these theoretical models are mainly constructed using annual aggregates, the models do not make any specific predictions about monthly or quarterly aggregates. Meanwhile, McKibbon and Sidorenko (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce US GDP by 5.5%, while Cooper (2006) simulates the CBO’s scenario but with disruptions to trade, and finds a 6% decline instead of a 4.25% decline in GDP. James and Sargent base their estimates on macro data from US flu pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1, Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. Lee and McKibbin find that their larger loss prediction is driven by the behavior of macro policy in their model. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. For the first time in recent memory, the number of Hong Kong … McGill-Queen’s Press. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/, Midland Realty, 2020. For only $10, botdev12 will do zillow scraping bot and lead generation for real estate. Between February and May 2003, transactions were 33% below their January 2003 value, before returning to normal by July. Hong Kong real estate values have increased six-fold since 2003 and it only saw a decline of -3.6% in 2016. Homes listings include vacation homes, apartments, penthouses, luxury retreats, lake homes, ski … The below countries can not be accessed from this region but are available on our partner site, Providence Bay Phase 2 - Providence Peak, 8 Fo Chun Road, Tai Po, New Territories, DBay Phase 10 - Neo Horizon, 25,27 Discovery Bay Rd., Discovery Bay, Outlying Islands, Clearwater Bay Village house, Clearwater Bay, New Territories, DBay Phase 5 - Greenvale Village - Block 2 Greenburg Court, 9 Discovery Bay Rd., Discovery Bay, Outlying Islands, Ravana Garden, 1-3 On King St., Shatin, Shatin, New Territories, Mayfair By The Sea, 21-23 Fo Chun Road, Tai Po, New Territories, Parc Versailles, 3-8 Mui Shu Hang Rd., Tai Po, Tai Po, New Territories, Ocean Shores, 88 O King Road, Tseung Kwan O/Hang Hau, New Territories, Mont Vert, 9 Fung Yuen Road, Tai Po, New Territories. We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). URL: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h9qh.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. The Christie's International Real Estate network has complete luxury home listings for England. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. , Goldman Sachs Economic Research. This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. We have 8 luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. Get details of properties and view photos. Richard Wong, 2004. Since consumers wish to avoid nonessential human contact, the 2003 SARS pandemic led to a temporary fall in monthly real estate transactions from 33% to 72% vs. baseline for the duration of the epidemic, while real estate prices held steady. March report from Zillow that looked at the 1918 influenza outbreak in U.S. cities, and Hong Kong’s experience with SARS in 2003. The market has fallen in response to a mix of information, including global community spread of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, a travel ban for Europeans into the US, and general uncertainty about a fiscal response to the virus. This pattern is also consistent with customers avoiding nonessential interactions, although the effect of the crisis on production and exports depends on the extent of the crisis in trading partners, and whether or not that crisis affects supply chains. By the time that SARS hit in February 2003, the Hong Kong real estate market had already experienced a downward trend in transactions and in a real residential price index. A list of our real estate licenses is available here.TREC: Information about brokerage services, Consumer protection noticeCalifornia DRE #1522444Contact Zillow Inc. “The Possible Macroeconomic Impact on the UK of an Influenza Epidemic.”. Hong Kong Property, Apartment for Rent and for Sale (Jan 2021) Houses (3 days ago) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. During epidemics such as the 1918 influenza or the 2003 SARS outbreaks, economic activity fell sharply during the epidemic (a 5-10% temporary hit to GDP or industrial production over the course of the epidemic) but snapped back quickly once the epidemic was over. Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Will there be a recession in Trump’s 1st term?” Retrieved March 2, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. : Rental Inclusive (including management fee and government rate) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. If you are looking to buy Hong Kong luxury property or lease Hong Kong luxury property we make it easy to find your dream home by letting you filter using listing search results. Data available in the NBER Macrohistory database, via the St. Louis Fed FRED database. 1, 2020. We note that this fall is difficult to distinguish from the preexisting downward trend. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. If you wish to report an issue or seek an accommodation, please let us know. URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html. Meanwhile, during the current episode in China, news reports and early data provided by Goldman Sachs (2020) indicate a near-shutdown in the volume of Chinese real estate transactions, although there is not yet a clear effect on real estate prices. “Will there be a recession in Trump’s 1st term?” Retrieved March 2, 2020. Get hired! Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements. Zillow Research conducted a deep dive into past research and data on the economic effects of global pandemics to help provide perspective on what the future could hold under various scenarios. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR, PredictIt, 2020. Coincided with drawdown surrounding end of World War I and a recession. “Global Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Manuscript, Brookings Institution, Lowy Institute for International Policy. Get details of properties and view photos. URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump’s-1st-term, Siu, Alan, and Y.C. Hoby Hana, Howard Hanna Real Estate, referring to Zillow become a brokerage. 1.6% fall in home value, 2.8% in infected areas. realtor.com® is the official site of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc., a subsidiary of News Corp. Comes to similar conclusions with respect to house prices by gross annual household... 20Reserve % 20BULLETIN % 201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B as at least two consecutive hong kong real estate zillow of falling GDP Formation... 64 homes for sale in South Korea | CENTURY 21 Global returning to by., Daan Struyven, David Choi, and after the epidemic was over, transactions snapped back to by. 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